CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-10-25T15:12:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2013 Oct 26 1346 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31026
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Oct 2013, 1310UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Oct 2013 until 28 Oct 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 028
COMMENT: There were one X flare, six M flares, and thirteen C flares on the Sun in
the past 24 hours. The X2.1 flare peaked at 15:03 UT on October 25 and was
associated with a radio Type II burst with an estimated shock speed of 2078
km/s at Sagamore Hill. All M and X flares and five C flares were produced
by beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 11882. Five C flares were released by
beta-gamma-delta region AR 11875, and one C flare each by AR 11869, AR
11874 and beta-gamma region AR 11877. Type II bursts were also registered
in association with the C2.3 flare released by AR 11875 peaking at 13:37 UT
on October 25 (estimated shock speed 1083 km/s by Sagamore Hill) and the
M1.5 flare released by AR 11882 peaking at 9:37 UT on October 26 (estimated
shock speed 1275 km/s by San Vito). In the next 48 hours, X flares are
possible, especially from NOAA AR 11882. There is a substantial risk of
halo CMEs and the warning condition for proton storms remains valid.
Several CMEs were ejected on October 25 and 26, among which two frontsided
halo CMEs. The first halo CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 8:24 UT on
October 25 and was associated to the X1.7 flare. The second halo CME was
first observed by LASCO C2 at 15:12 UT on October 25 and was associated
with the X2.1 flare. Both CMEs are expected to arrive on October 28.
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 0 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes
= 4) are expected for the second half of October 26, due to the expected
arrival of the October 22 (M4.2) CME. Quiet conditions are expected on
October 27, and minor storm conditions are expected on October 27 due to
the expected merged arrival of several CMEs (among which the two halo CMEs
of October 25).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 085, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Oct 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 142
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 161
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007
AK WINGST : 002
ESTIMATED AP : 002
ESTIMATED ISN : 096, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
25 1451 1503 1512 ////// X2.1 370 23/1882 I/2 2V/2 
25 1702 1709 1716 ////// M1.3 23/1882 III/2 
25 1905 1921 1924 S06E66 M2.3 SF 23/1882 
25 2054 2058 2113 S07E64 M1.9 1N 23/1882 III/2 
26 0559 0606 0620 S09E61 M2.3 1B 23/1882 III/2 
26 0917 0937 0948 ////// M1.5 23/1882 II/2 
END
BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement